The wildfire buffer on carbon projects ranges $13-64/acre, depending on the rulebook
Four programs price the wildfire share of a forest carbon buffer pool four different ways. On the same Southeastern forest the charge runs from $13 to $64 an acre, and the discount for doing fire work is worth $16 under one rulebook and $50 under another.
Airlines need 4-6x the credits currently available. The price halved anyway.
CORSIA Phase 1 demand is 170–236 million credits. About 40 million are authorized and labeled. A shortage that size should bid the price up. It fell by half instead.
The diesel curve implies both wars end within a year
The ULSD contract for delivery next October is priced 31% below the contract for next month. That decline requires Hormuz open, Russian refining repaired and 1.5 million b/d of capacity back — inside twelve months.
The federal timber harvest collapse was over before the rule was written
The 2001 Roadless Rule rescission is reported as 58 million acres thrown open to logging. But federal timber's share of US supply had already fallen from 16% to below 5% before the rule existed.